NFOMurillo

Murillo Costa dos Santos

NOTT'M FOREST
DEF
£5.5· 2.1% owned
Price
£5.5
0.0 this GW
Total pts
23
4.6 per game
Form
6.0
last 30 days
Owned
2.1%
xG / xA
0.42 / 0.37
season totals
ICT
21.4
449 mins played
Next 5 fixtures
GW6
CRY (A)
3 xP
GW7
ARS (H)
3 xP
GW8
IPS (A)
4 xP
GW9
BRE (A)
3 xP
GW10
MCI (H)
3 xP

Murillo starts almost every week and faces a average run: CRY (A), ARS (H), IPS (A), BRE (A), MCI (H).

Last 5 matches
GWOppMinGABnsxGxAPts
1LEE (H)900000.000.284
2LIV (A)900000.180.001
3TOT (H)890000.170.008
4AVL (A)900100.000.016
5COV (H)900000.070.084
Why this projection

The model works bottom-up from Murillo's underlying rates rather than raw points: 0.08 expected goals and 0.08 expected assists per 90, 90 minutes per appearance, and a clean-sheet rate of 20%. Those rates are then adjusted for each opponent's fixture difficulty (currently averaging 3.2 over the next 5) and blended with recent form.

Availability is factored in directly: he is fully fit, so the raw projection is scaled by 100%.

Buy85%
Confidence85%

Buy — Murillo is one of the better DEF options for the next 5 gameweeks.

  • Strong value: 17 projected points over the next 5 gameweeks at £5.5.
  • In form: 6.0 per game recently against a season average of 4.6.
  • Nailed on: averaging 90 minutes per appearance.
Projected points
Next 1 GW3
Next 3 GWs11
Next 5 GWs17
Captain rating32/100

Captain rating combines the GW5 projection with minutes certainty and position ceiling.