Over the next five gameweeks our model projects 13 points for Nketiah and 8 for Welbeck, so Nketiah is the pick.

What does this comparison account for?

Price, ownership, form, expected goals and assists per 90, minutes reliability, and the difficulty of each player's next five fixtures.

Nketiah vs Welbeck

Head-to-head over the next 5 gameweeks. Our model favours Nketiah by 4 projected points.

Nketiah

CRYSTAL PALACE · FWD · £5.5

projected points / 5 GW

Hold57%

NFO (H)BHA (A)NEW (H)TOT (A)LIV (H)

Welbeck

CHELSEA · FWD · £5.9

projected points / 5 GW

Sell64%

BOU (H)EVE (A)TOT (H)MUN (H)SUN (A)

Stat by stat

£5.5Price£5.9

8Total points4

1.7Form1.3

2.0Points / game1.3

0.5%Owned1.0%

175Minutes85

0Goals0

1Assists0

1.10xG0.00

0.60xA0.14

13.0ICT6.1

3.4Avg FDR (5)3.0

13Projected pts8

The verdict

Nketiah comes out ahead on the five-gameweek projection (13 vs 8), largely because of the fixture run (average difficulty 3.4) and better current form.

Hold — Nketiah is fine to keep, but there is no urgent case to bring him in.

Sell — the projection, fixtures or minutes do not support keeping Welbeck.

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