Over the next five gameweeks our model projects 8 points for Welbeck and 20 for Isak, so Isak is the pick.

What does this comparison account for?

Price, ownership, form, expected goals and assists per 90, minutes reliability, and the difficulty of each player's next five fixtures.

Welbeck vs Isak

Head-to-head over the next 5 gameweeks. Our model favours Isak by 12 projected points.

Welbeck

CHELSEA · FWD · £5.9

projected points / 5 GW

Sell64%

BOU (H)EVE (A)TOT (H)MUN (H)SUN (A)

Isak

LIVERPOOL · FWD · £9.1

projected points / 5 GW

Hold57%

MCI (H)BRE (A)BHA (H)ARS (H)CRY (A)

Stat by stat

£5.9Price£9.1

4Total points33

1.3Form7.7

1.3Points / game6.6

1.0%Owned22.4%

85Minutes413

0Goals4

0Assists0

0.00xG3.54

0.14xA0.08

6.1ICT40.0

3.0Avg FDR (5)3.4

8Projected pts20

The verdict

Isak comes out ahead on the five-gameweek projection (20 vs 8), largely because of the fixture run (average difficulty 3.4) and better current form.

Sell — the projection, fixtures or minutes do not support keeping Welbeck.

Hold — Isak is fine to keep, but there is no urgent case to bring him in.

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